June CIPA report: still better than last year

CIPA (Camera & Imaging Products Association in Japan) published their June report where the uptrend from previous months in the total shipment of interchangeable lens digital cameras continues (orange: 2017, black: 2016, blue: 2015, click for larger view):

List of participating CIPA companies can be found here.

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  • EcoR1

    Overall shipments are better compared to June last year, but the reason is mirrorless cameras:

    Shipments June 2017 vs. June 2016:

    DSLR: -3%
    Mirrorless: +66%

    And we are still seeing the Kumamoto-effect, the mirrorless-shipments last summer were lower than otherwise expected.

    • EnPassant

      Correct! Despite no earthquake this year DSLR sales continue their steep decline.

      Mirrorless on the other hand are on the rise.
      Their production and shipments worldwide is no longer flat on the graph but pointing up with an all-time high since 2012 when CIPA started sigle out mirrorless cameras from DSLRs.

      Mirrorless production and shipments are now around 36% of all ICL cameras. Within a couple of years worldwide shipments will propably be at the 45% level mirrorless shipments to Japan are today. And within 3-5 years exceed 50%.

      Unfortunately the CIPA statistics are not very detailed. But my educated guess is full frame DSLRs are selling quite well and most of the decline is for crop DSLRs.

      This means Nikon need to make a serious mirrorless crop format camera if they want to continue be the big player next to Canon in the camera market.

      Full frame is just too expensive for most people. A mirrorless FF system would not increase sales by much as it would only move the customers from FF DSLRs to FF mirrorless and therefore could not compensate for the falling crop DSLR sales.

      • Kunzite

        3% is a “steep decline”? Wow.

        • EnPassant

          It must be looked in the light of the earthquake last year that affected everybody except Canon.
          Had it not occured production would have been higher in 2016 and the decline for DSLRs this year maybe around 10%.

          Because from 2015 to 2017 22% of DSLR sales were lost when comparing the first six months of the year.
          Loosing 10% of sales year after year is definitely a very big decline.
          If we instead compare with mirrorless production increased with 41% from 2015 to 2017!

          If we compare DSLR to Mirrorless the DSLR decline is even more clear.
          2015 DSLRs had a 76% market share. 2017 it is down to 64%. But as the market share was almost the same in 2016 with 75% DSLRs the rapid decline in market share because of more mirrorless shipments this year actually occurred since last year.
          Three years from now the market share might already be in favour of mirrorless cameras.

          • Kunzite

            By your logic, +3% would be a “steep decline”, too, and DSLRs stabilizing would be them free falling.
            Don’t try to rationalize something which is completely illogical.

          • EnPassant

            Let’s wait for the statistics next year. I’m convinced the trend continues.
            If your logic ignores important things affecting the statistics that’s your call. I try to see what is behind the figures rather than be blinded by them.

          • Kunzite

            Sure, perhaps next year we would see a steep decline of +3%.

    • MB

      What is your source?

      • EcoR1

        CIPA. All data is openly available for everyone.

  • Kunzite

    The DSLR:MILC ratio increased – in the DSLR’s favor – to almost 2:1.

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